Thursday, August 16, 2007

Who says they don't ring a bell at the bottom?


Although this blog is too young to have covered this except for one sentence, I'm sure you have not missed in the media the discussion of the yen carry trade. Yen goes up, market goes down. It is amazing how true this has been down to the minute charts.


Check this out today.... These are 1 day 5 minute charts from today of the S&P e-mini's and FXY, the yen tracking ETF. Of interest is the action between 12:40pm and 1:10pm. Note how coming into this period they were moving inverse to each other as they should. The S&P futures tanked to new lows as FXY rocketed higher. Then as FXY continued to rocket higher for the next 20 minutes the S&P was showing support!! This is a bullish divergence (for stocks) in this relationship showing buyers stepping in despite panic buying in FXY. Truly amazing to see. This is a fun relationship for any intraday traders out there.


So for short term trades, no doubt today finally saw some capitulating action we have been waiting for to make any assumption that stabilization had arrived. Huge record volumes and reversal candles. On follow through could begin to have slight confidence in long trades but the trend certainly remains down.... so a bounce will also set up potential short plays. I'll be traveling for the next week but I hope to be able to plan out some trades here.

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